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August 18th COVID-19: Average Daily Deaths have Tripled Since Low in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 05:32:00 PM

On daily deaths: Just over a month ago, the 7-day average for daily COVID deaths was around 180. Since then, the 7-day average of daily deaths has tripled, and since deaths lag hospitalizations, it seems likely daily deaths will double again. Be careful!
The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 2nd.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 10th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 13th.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 358,599,835, as of a week ago 353,205,544. Average doses last week: 0.77 million per day.

COVID Metrics
Today Yesterday Week
Percent fully
51.0% 50.9% 50.3% >=70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated
169.2 168.9 167.1 >=2321
New Cases
per Day3?
130,121 128,508 114,963 <=5,0002
Hospitalized3? 74,602 73,099 59,800 <=3,0002
Deaths per Day3? 554 534 520 <=502
1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For “herd immunity” most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).

KUDOS to the residents of the 6 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.1%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland.

The following 18 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Jersey at 59.9%, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois at 50.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.7%, South Dakota at 48.1, Ohio at 47.5%, Kentucky at 47.0%, Kansas at 46.7%, Arizona at 46.6%, Alaska at 46.4%, Utah at 46.2%, and Nevada at 46.1%.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

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