by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2021 02:13:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. In September, about half of participants expected one rate hike in 2022. Now, participants expect 3 rate hikes in 2022.
Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at close to a 6.5% annual rate in Q4 that would put Q4-over-Q4 at around 5.4% – so the FOMC projections for 2021 were revised down.
|GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1|
|Dec 2021||5.5||3.6 to 4.5||2.0 to 2.5||1.8 to 2.0|
|Sept 2021||5.8 to 6.0||3.4 to 4.5||2.2 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.2|
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
|Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2|
|Dec 2021||4.2 to 4.3||3.4 to 3.7||3.2 to 3.6||3.2 to 3.7|
|Sept 2021||4.6 to 4.8||3.6 to 4.0||3.3 to 3.7||3.3 to 3.6|
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of October 2021, PCE inflation was up 5.0% from October 2020.
The projections for inflation were revised up sharply and the FOMC sees inflation solidly above target in 2022 and 2023.
|Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1|
|Dec 2021||5.3 to 5.4||2.2 to 3.0||2.1 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.2|
|Sept 2021||4.0 to 4.3||2.0 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|
PCE core inflation was up 4.1% in October year-over-year.
Projections for core inflation were revised up.
|Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1|
|Dec 2021||4.4||2.5 to 3.0||2.1 to 2.4||2.0 to 2.2|
|Sept 2021||3.6 to 3.8||2.0 to 2.5||2.0 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|