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Forex Today: Risk-On Rally Continues

on November 16, 2020

Risk-on rally in markets continues.

  • Stock markets globally are higher, after the S&P 500 Index made a record weekly high close last Friday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index has risen by more than 2% this session to trade at a new all-time high closing price. Risk-on sentiment has been boosted by the news that Joe Biden’s advisors are ruling out a nationwide U.S. lockdown to combat the spread of coronavirus.
  • The U.S. dollar is clearly the weakest major currency, while the Australian dollar is the strongest.
  • Although political analysts generally concur President Trump has no way to remain in office, betting markets are still taking bets on the eventual certified winner, with President Trump implied a 4% chance of remaining in power.
  • There will be a release of U.S. retail sales data later today, which could help give an insight into the pace of the post-coronavirus economic recovery in the U.S.
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  • The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its recent Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes during the next Asian session.
  • I expect the Japanese yen to rise this week as a reaction to last week’s fall, as the Japanese economy enjoys its fastest rate of economic growth in over 50 years.
  • Last Friday saw 660,906 confirmed new coronavirus cases diagnosed worldwide – a record high.
  • Coronavirus daily global death tolls are rising sharply to a new high well above the former record high made last April. Deaths in Latin America and the Caribbean continuing to fall, while rising strongly elsewhere, notably in Europe and in the U.S.A. The U.S.A. accounts for about 17% of the global total, Europe 44%, with Latin America at 18%.
  • The European Union is now seeing new coronavirus cases begin to fall and deaths level off, but is still more afflicted than any other geographical area, as lockdowns begin to have an effect. New cases in the E.U. are considerably higher than in the U.S., with a higher amount of deaths too. However, these numbers are increasing in the U.S. while they are beginning to decline in the E.U.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases stand at over 54.3 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.42%.
  • India has more than 8.8 million confirmed coronavirus cases, more than any other nation except the U.S.A. which has confirmed more than 11 million cases.
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burma, Canada, Costa Rica, Croatia, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, South Korea, Kosovo, Latvia, Lebanon, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Mali, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, North Macedonia, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Trinidad, Turkey, U.S.A., Ukraine, the U.K., and Uruguay.

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