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Forex Today: Stocks Edge Higher

on November 17, 2020

Risk slightly bid on quiet Monday.

  • Stock markets globally are slightly higher, after the S&P 500 Index made a daily close at a new all-time high above 3600. Risk-on sentiment remains prevalent in markets.

  • The U.S. dollar is clearly the weakest major currency, while the Australian dollar is the strongest, even though the RAB signified a few hours ago in its monthly monetary policy meeting minutes that it remains prepared for more economic stimulus if seen as required.
  • Although political analysts generally concur President Trump has no way to remain in office, betting markets are still taking bets on the eventual certified winner, with President Trump implied a 4% chance of remaining in power.
  • I expect the Japanese yen to rise this week as a reaction to last week’s fall, as the Japanese economy enjoys its fastest rate of economic growth in over 50 years.
  • The Turkish lira regained a lot of ground last week after its recent run of strong selling. Typical mean reversion suggests the lira is likely to fall this week.
  • Last Friday saw 660,906 confirmed new coronavirus cases diagnosed worldwide – a record high.
  • Coronavirus daily global death tolls are rising sharply to a new high well above the former record high made last April. Deaths in Latin America and the Caribbean continuing to fall, while rising strongly elsewhere, notably in Europe and in the U.S.A. The U.S.A. accounts for about 17% of the global total, Europe 44%, with Latin America at 18%.
  • The European Union is now seeing new coronavirus cases begin to fall and deaths level off, but is still more afflicted than any other geographical area, as lockdowns begin to have an effect. New cases in the E.U. are considerably higher than in the U.S., with a higher amount of deaths too. However, these numbers are still increasing in the U.S. while they are beginning to decline in the E.U.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases stand at over 55 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.41%.
  • India has more than 8.8 million confirmed coronavirus cases, more than any other nation except the U.S.A. which has confirmed more than 11.2 million cases.
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Canada, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Kosovo, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mali, Moldova, Pakistan, Panama, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Trinidad, Turkey, U.S.A., Ukraine, and the U.K.

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