by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2021 08:15:00 AM
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Pulls Back in July
The Dodge Momentum Index fell to 155.8 (2000=100) in July, a 6% decline from the revised June reading of 164.9. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
Both components of the Momentum Index fell in July. Commercial planning fell 3%, while institutional planning dropped 9%.
The Momentum Index posted strong gains through much of the winter and spring as the economy and building markets began to stabilize following the recession. While the economy has continued its forward progress through the summer, the Index has regressed somewhat as higher material prices and shortages of skilled labor continue to exert a strong influence over the construction sector. Despite the declines in June and July, the Momentum Index remains near levels last seen in 2018. Compared to a year earlier, the Momentum Index was 25% higher than in July 2020 — institutional planning was up 27% and commercial planning was 25% higher than last year.
This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 155.8 in June, down from 164.9 in June.
According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a pickup towards the end of the year, and growth in 2022 (even with the decline in the July index).