by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2021 08:11:00 AM
The key report this week is the July employment report.
Other key reports include ISM manufacturing and services indexes, July vehicle sales, and the Trade deficit for June.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.9, up from 60.6 in June. The employment index was at 49.9% in June, and the new orders index was at 66.0%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for July.
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for June
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 675 thousand payroll jobs added in July, down from 692 thousand added in June.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for July. The consensus is for a reading of 60.4, up from 60.1.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is the trade deficit to be $73.9 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.2 Billion the previous month.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 390 thousand from 400 thousand last week.
There were 850,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 5.9%.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.
The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the “Great Recession”.