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Schedule for Week of October 31, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2021 08:11:00 AM

Boo!

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, October vehicle sales, and the September trade deficit.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and they are expected to announce tapering of asset purchases.

—– Monday, November 1st —–

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 60.5%, down from 61.1%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

—– Tuesday, November 2nd —–

8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for September.

10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 12.4 million SAAR, up from 12.2 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

—– Wednesday, November 3rd —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 400,000 jobs added, down from 568,000 in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 59.5 from 61.9.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce tapering of asset purchases at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

—– Thursday, November 4th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, down from 281 thousand last week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the deficit to be $74.1 billion in September, from $73.3 billion in August.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

—– Friday, November 5th —–

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 413 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.7%.

There were 194 thousand jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 4.8%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the “Great Recession”.

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