Breaking Stories

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2022 09:00:00 PM

o At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were 198 thousand last week.

o At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $70.0 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $67.1 billion in October.

o At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for December.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Today Week
Percent fully Vaccinated 62.3% >=70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions) 206.8 >=2321
New Cases per Day3? 554,328 281,842 <=5,0002
Hospitalized3? 85,423 64,152 <=3,0002
Deaths per Day3? 1,238 1,072 <=502
1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are at record levels. It appears likely hospitalizations will exceed the previous 7-day average record of 124,031 a year ago.
Fortunately, deaths are still well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.

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