by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2021 12:10:00 PM
Note: This is even lower than housing economist Tom Lawler’s projection, see: Lawler: The Dismal Demographics of 2020. Demographics are still positive for housing, but nothing like the projections from a decade ago.
The Census projections were dropping all decade:
2014 Census projections for April 2020: 334.5 million
2017 projections: 332.6 million
Actual: 331.4 million
I’ll have more on this as the 2020 Census data is released.
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2020. The NCHS reports:
The provisional number of births for the United States in 2020 was 3,605,201, down 4% from the number in 2019 (3,747,540). This is the sixth consecutive year that the number of births has declined after an increase in 2014, down an average of 2% per year, and the lowest number of births since 1979.
The provisional general fertility rate (GFR) for the United States in 2020 was 55.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, down 4% from the rate in 2019 (58.3), another record low for the nation. From 2014 to 2020, the GFR declined by an average of 2% per year
The provisional birth rate for teenagers in 2020 was 15.3 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19, down 8% from 2019 (16.7), reaching another record low for this age group. The rate has declined by 63% since 2007 (41.5), the most recent period of continued decline, and 75% since 1991, the most recent peak.
Here is a long term graph of annual U.S. births through 2020.
Births have declined for six consecutive years following increases in 2013 and 2014.
Note the amazing decline in teenage births.
With fewer births, and less net migration, demographics are not be as favorable as once expected.
There is much more in the report.